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# When Will the Singularity Appear?

Before 2010! (23)
11%
Within 25 years. (52)
26%
More like 50... (51)
26%
100 or more. (27)
13%
Never! (43)
21%

When Will the Singularity Appear?
When Will the Singularity Appear? How long will it take us to develop a strong AI, capable of human-level cognition? See this definition for further information: An Introduction to the Singularity Comments welcome, as usual! | Alex J. Champandard 934 posts. Monday 05 August, 04:53 Reply
Horizons That particular article is a bit rambling (I guess it was trying to summarise too many things) but I believe that we are going to achieve true AI some time in the future. I think that their estimates are a bit far-fetched and remind me of the the early AI prophecies. As it stands, the current status of cognitive modelling is nowhere near producing human intelligence, let alone transhuman (nice term, very marketable...) intelligence. Things like the frame problem (i.e. what to ignore in any given situation) are still to be solved despite 30 years of research. Research into uncertain reasoning is still not a whole lot further than it was 10 years ago. Then there is the question of whether this method of modelling human intelligence will really succeed. Personally I don't think it will, not because AI researchers aren't clever enough, but because we cannot understand the human mind enough to be able to mimick it. My guess is that the a-life method will be the one that produces true human (or "transhuman") intelligence, growing it from the ground up rather than trying to mimick it from the top down. My guess: More like 50 Linden | Linden Hutchinson 26 posts. Monday 05 August, 16:32 Reply